Five tasks. Each one reveals something different about how you think under uncertainty.
This data is collected for research on decision-making conducted by the Andover Economics Society. Responses are accessible to AES and may be included in published findings.
Don't look it up. Go with your gut.
What percentage of UN member states are from Africa?
Drawing anchor…
Range: 0 – 100
Is the actual percentage higher or lower than this? Move the slider to show your estimate.
Read carefully and choose.
Decision
Read it once.
Do you buy a ticket?
Click to set your earliest bound: the lowest year your 90% confidence interval should include.
Set your bounds so you're 90% confident the true year falls between them.
Same expected value. Go with your instinct.
Decision
Both options have the same expected value. Which do you prefer?
Select the option that matches the instruction.
For this question, select "Confirm".
Optional. Takes 20 seconds. Helps contextualize the data.
Session code
From the flyer. Required to submit your responses to the study.
Gender
Economics background
Informal = self-study, reading, or work experience; Coursework = formal classes; Extensive = major, graduate work, or career.
Age
All responses are anonymous. We do not collect your name, email address, or any directly identifying information. We collect an anonymized device signature solely to prevent duplicate submissions. This data is collected for research on decision-making conducted by the Andover Economics Society. Responses are accessible to AES and may be included in published findings. You may stop at any time.
Your answers only contribute to the study if you complete this section.
Bibliography
Campbell, S., & Moore, D. A. (2024). Overprecision in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Collabra: Psychology, 10(1), 92953. https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.92953
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291.
Li, C., & Feldman, G. (2025). Revisiting mental accounting classic paradigms: Replication Registered Report of the problems reviewed in Thaler (1999). Royal Society Open Science, 12(9), 250979. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.250979
Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review, 115(2), 502–517.
Simmons, J. P., & Nelson, L. D. (2014). The "Exactly" replication: Tversky & Kahneman's (1981) framing effect is robust to precise wording. Data Colada. http://datacolada.org/11
Thaler, R. H. (1999). Mental accounting matters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12(3), 183–206.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211(4481), 453–458.